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Enioluwa Adeniyi
Guest
With the upcoming US presidential election set for November 5, an unusual scenario could add even more suspense to an already tense political climate: What if neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump achieves the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win?
Under the US election system, it’s not the national popular vote that determines the president, but rather the 538-member Electoral College, in which each state receives a number of “electors” equal to its representation in Congress.
The candidate who wins the majority of electoral votes—at least 270—becomes president. However, if both candidates tie or fail to reach that threshold, the decision falls to Congress.
In such a scenario, the newly elected House of Representatives would select the president, while the Senate would decide the vice president, as mandated by the US Constitution. This process, known as a “contingent election,” would take place on January 6, 2025, if needed.
Several paths could lead to a 269-269 tie. For instance, if Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and Trump prevails in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, plus one left-leaning district in Nebraska, both candidates would end up with 269 electoral votes.
While the possibility of a tie remains low, the last time Congress was forced to determine a presidential winner was in 1800, during a heated contest between Thomas Jefferson and then-incumbent John Adams.
After multiple ballots and intense debate, the House finally selected Jefferson on the 36th ballot, leading to the adoption of the 12th Amendment to clarify election procedures.
Should this unlikely scenario play out, it would thrust the 2025 Congress into the spotlight, echoing the political tension that marked America’s early years.
How would that vote proceed?
“Each state, regardless of population, casts a single vote for President in a contingent election,” according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS).
In other words, Republican-leaning Wyoming, with its city-sized population of 500,000, would have the same influence as Democratic California, where 39 million people live.
Though the US capital city, Washington, has three Electoral College votes, it would not get a vote in a contingent election as it is not a state.
A CRS report said that states with two or more representatives would need to hold an internal vote to determine which candidate to support.
A candidate must win a majority of the 50 states or 26 votes. At present, that would likely give Republicans the edge.
The House would likely have to adopt specific rules to govern the process, potentially leading to intense disagreements and a protracted period of constitutional crisis.
It is not hard to imagine how such a process, at the end of a razor-close campaign, would weigh on American voters’ already badly frayed nerves, many of whom are convinced that the vote has been rife with irregularities.
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